Tasmania petrol price forecast
Where Tasmania sits in its price cycle over the next seven days, and the oil and exchange-rate pressure behind it.
Unleaded 91, metro average
TAS is at a cycle low.
Cheapest the cycle has been in a fortnight.
Next 7 days
Forecast · metro- BESTTmrw247.6+0.378%
- Sat247.7+0.171%
- Sun247.70.065%
- Mon247.70.059%
- Tue247.8+0.154%
- Wed248.0+0.250%
- Thu248.2+0.245%
Why this verdict
Tasmania is sitting near the bottom of its price cycle.
Retail momentum — Station prices have been broadly flat over recent days.
Oil prices — Oil priced in Australian dollars is pushing pump prices up by about 0.3¢/L a day.
Model outlook — Weighing both together, the model shifts its day-ahead outlook up by about 0.1¢/L a day.
Built from 456 days of price history at 85% model confidence.
Past 30 days & next 7 days
Solid is what stations charged; dashed is the model's point forecast. The model produces a direction and a per-day confidence, not a range, so no band is drawn.
What the forecast watches
The Tasmania forecast starts from the same wholesale inputs every state shares — the price of oil in Australian dollars and the AUD/USD exchange rate. When these move, pump prices tend to follow.
Sources: calculated, api-ninjas
Sources: frankfurter.dev
Forecast accuracy
±1.4% average error across 1800 checked forecasts — Australia-wide, all fuel types — over the past 30 days
How these forecasts work
What goes in
30 days of station prices from official state government feeds, Brent crude oil priced in both US and Australian dollars, and the AUD/USD exchange rate.
How often it updates
Forecasts regenerate about every six hours.
How it's built
Recent station-price momentum is blended with oil-price movement to project the next 7 days for each state. Each state also gets a cycle verdict — fill up now or wait — anchored on its metro average.
Being honest about it
Forecasts are statistical estimates, not guarantees — confidence is shown per day, and accuracy is measured against what prices actually did.
This page shows the Tasmania model; every state shares the same inputs.
Frequently asked questions
Will Tasmania fuel prices go up or down?
The forecast shows the model's 7-day direction for Tasmania, based on where prices sit in the local cycle plus oil and exchange-rate pressure. Check the verdict and timeline above for the current read — it is a guide, not a guarantee.
How often is the Tasmania forecast updated?
New forecasts for Tasmania are generated about every six hours as fresh prices and market data arrive. This page serves a cached copy that refreshes within about fifteen minutes of each run.
What does the confidence figure mean?
Each day carries a confidence score reflecting how much history and how clear a signal the model had for Tasmania. Higher means a firmer read; lower means treat it as a rough guide. It is not a probability or a guaranteed price range.
What drives the Tasmania forecast?
Recent Tasmania station prices, the price of oil in Australian dollars, and the AUD/USD exchange rate. Wholesale costs feed through to the pump with a delay, so oil and the dollar hint at where prices are heading.
Is the Tasmania forecast a guarantee?
No — it is an estimate and can be wrong. Use it as a guide alongside live prices when you decide where and when to fill up in Tasmania.